Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8926 (S10W45) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL
C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/SF AT 25/0947UT. REGION 8926
DIMINISHED IN SIZE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY BUT ALSO DEVELOPED INTO A
MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. REGIONS 8924
(N10E41), 8925 (S18E50), AND 8928 (N19E45) WERE ALSO ACTIVE DURING
THE PERIOD PRODUCING ISOLATED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. THE REST OF THE
REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE AND SHOWED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY. AN 20 DEGREE LONG, DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (DSF) WAS
DETECTED NEAR S54E07.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED
BEGAN TO DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD, INDICATING THAT THE EARTH IS
MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 26 MAR to 28 MAR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 MAR 205 Predicted 26 MAR-28 MAR 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 25 MAR 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAR 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAR 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAR-28 MAR 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 MAR to 28 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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