Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Two new regions were numbered today: 9288 (S21E26) and 9289 (S07E81). The latter produced an M1/SF east limb event at 26/1613 UTC. Other activity included several instances of low- and mid-level C-class activity, most of which was optically uncorrelated, but with Region 9283 (S11E24) indicated by SOHO/EIT data as a likely source for some of this activity. An active prominence on the southeast limb (S30E90) was observed late in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9280 (N09W18), 9283, and 9289 all have potential for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic filed was quiet throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Dec 189
  Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  190/185/175
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB

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