Viewing archive of Monday, 22 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/Sf flare at 21/2312Z from region 9311 (N05W48). This group has shown slow growth during the past 24 hours and produced a few additional subflares. Region 9313 (S07E15) continues to be the largest region on the disk and shows some magnetic complexity, but could only muster one C-class subflare during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 appear to have the best potential for producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons was observed at geostationary orbit, but peak fluxes (around 3 pfu) remained below event level. These particles are likely to have been accelerated by the fast CME of 20 January, which was associated with an M7 x-ray flare.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next two days, with a fair chance for some isolated storm periods. The increase is anticipated with the arrival of enhanced solar wind from the two CME events of 20 January. In addition, currently enhanced levels of medium energy protons observed by ACE indicate the imminent arrival of an interplanetary shock sometime during the next 12 hours. A decrease to unsettled to slightly active is expected to occur on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 162
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  025/025-025/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%25%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm35%35%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

All times in UTC

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