Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 April 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Region 9433 (N18W63) produced isolated C-class subflares as it continued to show gradual decay in its lead and intermediate spots. However, no significant changes occurred within its trailer spots, where a magnetic delta configuration persisted. Region 9441 (N07E11) continued a gradual growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9444 (S11E52) showed minor spot and penumbral development. Region 9445 (N24E61) also exhibited minor spot and penumbral development and produced isolated C-class subflares late in the period. New Region 9446 (S05W22) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce isolated low-level M-class flares during the period. It may also produce an isolated major flare before crossing the west limb on 02 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The geomagnetic field disturbance that began yesterday subsided to quiet to unsettled levels after 29/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period. Region 9433 could produce a proton flare before crossing the west limb on 02 May.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 192
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  034/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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