Viewing archive of Monday, 30 April 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9445 (N24E48) produced a C5/Sf flare at 30/0721Z, and numerous lesser C-class flares throughout the day. Region 9333 (N17W74) was also a source of C-class activity. Regions 9445 and 9441 (N07W04) both exhibited moderate growth in areal coverage, while Region 9433 has shown some signs of decay as it approaches the west limb. New Region 9447 (N12E15) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a chance for a major flare event remaining for Region 9433 in particular.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing chance of active to minor storm conditions evolving toward the end of the three day period, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Any major flare activity from Region 9433 during the period would also carry a fair chance for an associated proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M70%70%60%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 188
  Predicted   01 May-03 May  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  004/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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