Viewing archive of Monday, 30 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 9445 (N24E48)
produced a C5/Sf flare at 30/0721Z, and numerous lesser C-class
flares throughout the day. Region 9333 (N17W74) was also a source
of C-class activity. Regions 9445 and 9441 (N07W04) both exhibited
moderate growth in areal coverage, while Region 9433 has shown some
signs of decay as it approaches the west limb. New Region 9447
(N12E15) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a chance for a major flare event remaining for Region
9433 in particular.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing
chance of active to minor storm conditions evolving toward the end
of the three day period, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Any major flare activity from Region 9433 during the period would
also carry a fair chance for an associated proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 188 Predicted 01 May-03 May 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 004/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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