Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
x-ray event from Region 9433 (N19W80). This was an M2/Sf flare that
occurred at 01/1917 UTC. Regions 9441 (N06W16) and 9445 (N26E37)
produced C-class x-ray and optical sub-flares during the period.
Region 9445 grew in area and spot count today. The Penticton 10.7 cm
Flux of 210 sfu was enhanced by the M2 flare. The value is more
likely closer to the Penticton morning observation of 185 sfu.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be moderate. Region 9433 is capable of producing an M-class event
before rotating completely over the western limb. Region 9441 and
9445 are also showing potential for isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing
chance of active conditions on the third day of the period, due to
favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 210 Predicted 02 May-04 May 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 01 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 001/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 010/012-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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