Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. This was an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at
02/0040 UTC. This event coincided with an eruptive prominence on the
northwest limb, most likely originating from Region 9433 (N19W90+).
Regions 9441 (N07W29) and 9445 (N25E23) were both active during the
period, producing C-class x-ray events and optical flares. Region
9445 also showed significant growth in the number of sunspots today
(28 to 40). Two new regions were numbered: 9448 (N22E60) and 9449
(S15E69).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9441 and 9445 are capable of producing isolated
M-class events during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods possible, due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 176 Predicted 03 May-05 May 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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