Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Two major flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The first was a long-duration M8 that
peaked at 0922Z, originating from Region 9393 behind the west limb.
This flare was associated with a CME which gives every indication
of moving in a westward direction, perpendicular to the Earth-Sun
line. The second was an M5/2n at 1725Z from Region 9415 (S21E47).
This event had an extended maximum and a slow decay profile. An
associated CME was just entering the C2 field of view at forecast
issue time and did not appear to have any earthward component.
Region 9415 appears to have formed a delta configuration in the
leader portion of the group. Region 9417 (S08E27) grew rapidly
during the last 24 hours and produced an M1/Sn flare at 0834Z.
Today's 10.7 cm background flux of 210 SFU had to be estimated due
to greatly enhanced radio noise levels occurring with today's
long-duration flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate during the next three days. There is a fair chance,
however, for additional major flares from Region 9415.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to active during the
past 24 hours. The first nine hours of the period were quiet, but
activity increased to mostly active from 0600-2100Z. There was a
minor storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200Z. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress with a continued slow
decline in flux levels. The flux at 05/2100Z was 25 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some
isolated active periods. Predominantly unsettled levels should
prevail for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Proton | 99% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 210
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 210/210/205
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/008-012/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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