Viewing archive of Monday, 4 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of
210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser
flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic
complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another
event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633
UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was
observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some
enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event,
indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not
expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in
association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source
of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with
Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable
of producing moderate flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated
active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal
hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days
of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole
effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day
three.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 154
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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