Viewing archive of Monday, 4 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of 210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633 UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event, indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable of producing moderate flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 154
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  006/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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