Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9506 (N17E61) produced today's largest event, a C9/1f at 15/2226 UTC. This region has rotated more fully into view as a relatively large, bright sunspot group with mixed magnetic polarities. Substantial growth was observed in Region 9503 (N13E33) but no flares were reported during the last 24 hours. Region 9502 (S25E19) showed slow growth and was observed to produce a C5/Sf flare at 2010 UTC. Region 9495 (N06W73) displayed growth and enhanced plage today and produced occasional subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with the main flare-producing regions being 9502 and 9506, although regions 9495 and 9503 may also contribute to the activity. There is a slight chance for a major flare event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began yesterday at 1750 UTC attained a maximum of 26 PFU at 16/0005 UTC and ended today at 1210 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active tomorrow in possible response to recent CME activity observed on the 13th and the 14th. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the second and third days of the forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 208
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  205/205/210
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  006/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  020/020-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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