Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 July 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9539 (S18W15) produced an M1/Sf flare at 14/2133 UTC. Region 9539 was by far, the most active region on the visible disk. It also produced a C7/1f flare and a C6/Sf flare during the period. This regions rapid growth has somewhat stabilized for the time being. However, it continues to posses a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Other regions of note were 9533 (S08W54) and newly numbered regions 9542 (N06E66) and 9543 (S24E71), all of which produced optical subflares during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels. Region 9539 is capable of producing isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels during the first two days of the forecast period, due to possible coronal hole effects. Conditions should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 142
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  013/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  012/013-012/013-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Norilsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.12nT), the direction is slightly South (-5.95nT).

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