Viewing archive of Monday, 18 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels for the eighth
consecutive day. Isolated C-class subflares occurred. Region 9830
(S18E20) produced a few subflares as it continued to gradually
increase in size and complexity. Multiple magnetic delta
configurations have developed within its leader spots during recent
days. Region 9825 (N14W51) continued to gradually decay. New Region
9832 (S13E25) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 could produce an isolated M-class flare
during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 193 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 007/012-007/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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