SpaceWeatherLive .com
Real-time auroral and solar activity

Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 March 2002

Solar activity report

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Region 9871 (S18E20) produced today's biggest event, an impulsive M4/Sf at 1931 UTC. The region appears to be growing slowly. An additional M-class event occurred: an M1 at 1019 UTC for which there was no optical report. Region 9866 (S09W33) is decaying gradually, but is still the largest region on the disk. Retrospective analysis of the CME that occurred around 15/2310 UTC shows a full halo event with an estimated plane-of-sky speed somewhere in the 750-850 km/s range. New Region 9873 (S17W09) emerged near the middle of the solar disk during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days, with Regions 9866 and 9871 being the most likely sources.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV protons began to rise at the very end of the UT day yesterday and crossed event threshold at 17/0820 UTC. The fluxes reached a maximum of 13 PFU at 17/0850 UTC. The fluxes dropped below threshold at 17/1230 UTC, but have been fluctuating and have been on the increase since around 1500 UTC. It seems probable that the current slow climb is related to the approach of an interplanetary shock.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to minor storm levels tomorrow in response to the halo CME event of 15/2310 UTC. A decrease to active is expected on the second day and a further decline to unsettled is expected by the third day. The current trend of the 10 MeV protons and the likely arrival of a shock in the next 12 hours all suggest that the proton fluxes should once again cross threshold.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton50%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 184
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  190/195/190
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  030/030-020/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%20%10%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

Back to top

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.79nT).
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

Latest news

Latest forum messages

Photographing auroras 7AR14028 2025/03/21 CME 2025/03/23 G3 Watch 340Photographing auroras 0New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 35More on an art than a science 2
More topics

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth

The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity. 

alert

Read more
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole

A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days

alert

02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC

alert

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/02/23X2.0
Last M-flare2025/03/21M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/22Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
March 2025138.3 -16.4
Last 30 days136.1 -18.1

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M4.4
22001M3.71
32001M3.57
42004M3.43
52008M2.47
DstG
11991-298G4
21990-111G2
31983-103G2
41969-97G1
52024-88G1
*since 1994

Social networks