Viewing archive of Monday, 18 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Activity in the vicinity of Region 9866 (S09W46) was associated with a long duration M1 flare which began at 0216 UTC and ended at 0400 UTC. Also associated with this event were a type IV sweep and a halo CME visible in LASCO imagery. Region 9866 continues to decay slowly. C-class flare activity was observed from Region 9870 (S20W39) which appears to have some new, opposite polarity flux emergence. Region 9871 (S19E07) produced a C8/1f flare at 1918 UTC and is currently the largest region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9866 and 9871 are considered to be the most likely sources for M-class flares. There is a slight chance for a major flare during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until 1323 UTC when a strong sudden impulse (SI) was observed. The SI measured 42 nT on the Boulder magnetometer. The SI followed the passage of a shock at ACE at 1237 UTC. The post shock flow at ACE consisted of enhanced magnetic fields but so far they have been predominantly northward. Geomagnetic activity subsequent to the SI has been unsettled to active. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 17/0820 UTC officially ended at 17/1230 UTC, but flux levels remained enhanced thereafter. With the arrival of the shock the protons once again reached event level, beginning at 19/1300 UTC. The maximum flux observed so far was 25 PFU at 19/1535 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours, with a chance for some isolated minor storm periods. After the current transient flow subsides there should be a lull in activity, but another shock is expected to arrive near mid-day (UT time) on the 20th in response to today's halo CME. Activity following this shock is expected to be mostly active. Conditions should subside to unsettled sometime on the third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to end sometime in the next 12 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton30%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 178
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  015/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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