Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely. Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 189
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  195/200/205
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  007/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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