Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred from a variety of regions. The largest was an impulsive
C9/Sf at 26/1027 UTC in Region 9830 (S17W92). Regions 9842 (S19W49)
and 9846 (S03W68) continued to grow in sunspot number and area. Both
regions produced C-class activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Region 9830,
9842, or 9846.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 208 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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