Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C3/Sf from 9878 (N08E01). This region continues to slowly
develop in size and complexity. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9881 (S03W62). A strong CME observed off the west
limb at around 26/1400Z, appears to have originated from behind the
SW limb. Remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or in
decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9878 has potential to produce isolated M-class
flares. Occasional C-class flares are expected from Region 9881.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet early in the period, but
became unsettled following the onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream at around 26/0100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods at high latitudes. This weak, coronal hole
related disturbance should begin to subside by day two.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 166 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 208
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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