Viewing archive of Monday, 22 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9906
(S14W103), now well beyond the west limb, produced a C7 X-ray flare
at 22/0019 UTC associated with a bright surge and an eruptive
prominence. Region 9912 (N10W25) produced a C2/Sf flare at 22/1210
UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 804
km/sec). Region 9912 was in a gradual growth phase. A weak magnetic
delta configuration may have developed within its trailer spots. New
Region 9917 (S30E45) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There's a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9912.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 22/0300 - 0600 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 21/0155 UTC reached a peak of 22.9 pfu at
21/1025 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC reached a peak of
2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC and was in progress as the period ended.
Peak polar cap absorption associated with the proton event was
estimated to be 16 dB (daytime) and 3.9 dB (nighttime).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active to minor storm levels on 23 April in
response to yesterday's X1/partial-halo CME event. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected on 24 April as the disturbance winds
down. Unsettled conditions are expected on the final day. The
greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23
April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 24
April.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 20% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 170 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 199
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 025/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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