Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9948 (S22E01) produced
a C4 long duration event at 16/0035 UTC which was optically
correlated by the SOHO/LASCO EIT images. This event had associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a full halo CME. Another long
duration C5 was observed from this region at 16/0521 UTC which was
also optically correlated by EIT images. Two new regions were
numbered today as Region 9956 (S08W04) and 9957 (N06E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The potential for an isolated M-class event is
possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
on 19 May as a result of the CME observed from Region 9948 at
16/0035 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 158 Predicted 17 May-19 May 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 16 May 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 007/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/008-010/010-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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