Viewing archive of Friday, 17 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 event was observed
by SOHO/LASCO EIT images at 17/0123 UTC from Region 9957 (N08E58).
Another M1 occurred at 17/0754 UTC with an associated TYPE II radio
sweep. This event was optically uncorrelated , however, EIT images
suggest the source behind the NE limb. The largest event was an
M2/Sf at 17/1608 UTC from Region 9954 (S22E40). Region 9957 is the
most complex region on the disk and has developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. The region was split into two groups today
with the leading spot group numbered as Region 9958 (N04E50).
Another new region was numbered today as Region 9959 (N10E09).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9957 is capable of producing an isolated major
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. An isolated
active period was observed at high latitudes at 17/1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
on 19 May as a result of the CME from 16 May.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 157 Predicted 18 May-20 May 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 17 May 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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