Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an
optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC. Lesser C- and
B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1
(N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63). Region 9997
(N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single
beta-class group of penless spots. Other regions that emerged on
the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and
Region 4 (S16E10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A small chance for an isolated moderate flare
exists for the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet. One isolated unsettled
period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 135
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.
All times in UTC
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