Viewing archive of Friday, 12 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2002 . . . . Corrected Copy . . . . . . . .IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E37)
appears to be the only flaring region on the visible disk. Multiple
minor B- and C-class flares were produced from this region today.
Magnetic complexity and spot coverage continue to show steady
growth. Region is now depicting a strong delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing portion of cluster, and remains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The few remaining spotted
regions have shown little change throughout the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 continues to exhibit the potential for
an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm
levels.A coronal hole in the southwest quadrant in concert with a
weak eastern flanking shock, from the partial halo CME observed on
the 07th of July, is believed to be responsible for the elevated
geomagnetic field activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one as the effects from the
geoeffective coronal hole wane.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 133 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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