Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 243 (S19W60) produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.8/Sf event occurring at 05/0617 UTC. Regions 242 (S08E20) and 244 (S23E27) were responsible for several low level B and C-class flares during the period. All three of these regions slowed from previous days growth trend with little change noted in areal spot coverage or magnetic complexity during the period. A 23 degree disappearing solar filament began to erupt at approximately 05 0900 UTC with an associated CME that does not appear to have an earth-bound trajectory. A bright surge just beyond the east limb (with a radial vector of .26 degrees) occurred at 05/0727 UTC which is believed to be old returning region 226. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 242 has a very slight chance of producing a low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 148
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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