Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 243 (S19W47) and 244 (S23E40) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C4.7/Sf from Region 244 that occurred at 03/2200 UTC. This region has quadrupled in white-light areal spot coverage during the past 24 hours. Regions 243 and 242 (S08E33) have also shown significant spot growth and both region's have developed a gamma magnetic structure since yesterday. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole was responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 143
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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