Viewing archive of Friday, 31 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a C2 at 0606 UTC. Solar X-ray images clearly show that the source for all of these events was a new active region just behind the East limb at about S15. A 17 degree filament near S11E02 disappeared between 0223 UTC and 1137 UTC. All of the active regions on the disk were stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor storm period at high latitudes. Solar wind data indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, but there is a chance for some active periods. Effects from the halo CME of 30 January are expected to arrive some time around midday tomorrow and should increase levels to active through the second day. Conditions should decline to unsettled to slightly active on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 120
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  018/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  014/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  010/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

All times in UTC

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