Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 424 (S18W28)
maintains moderate size and complexity, but activity this period was
limited to occasional intensity fluctuations in the plage field. New
Region 431 (S12E68) was numbered today. This new region is likely
the return of old Region 410 which produced multiple C-class flares
during its last transit across the visible disk. A considerable
degree of surging was observed, but limb proximity is still making
it too difficult to assess this region's true complexity. Nothing
remarkable in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 424 and 431 both have potential for C-class
activity. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The high speed solar
wind stream is subsiding as the large equatorial coronal hole
rotates out of a geoeffective position. Wind speed began the period
near 750 km/s, but has gradually declined to near 650 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Predominantly
quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active periods are
expected on days one and two as the current high speed solar wind
stream continues to weaken. Another recurrent equatorial coronal
hole will move into a geoeffective position by day three and produce
occasional minor to major storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 130 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 022/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/015-015/020-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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