Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 425 (S09W43) produced a
C3/Sf flare at 10/1020Z followed by a more gradual C2 flare that
peaked at 10/1128Z. Region 431 (S13E56) produced an impulsive C1/Sf
flare at 10/0127Z. This beta gamma region is showing some minor
complexity in a spot group with over 250 millionths of white light
coverage. Region 424 (S18W41), the largest region on the visible
disk, exhibited only minor plage fluctuations this period. Remaining
active regions were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. C-class flares are possible from Regions 424, 425,
and 431.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A declining high speed
stream with very low density and weak northward IMF Bz continues to
buffet the Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind speed declined from
near 700 km/s to below 600 km/s by the end of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active on day one. Another coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
on days two and three. Expect unsettled to minor storm levels both
days with isolated major storm periods on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 131 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 012/012-020/020-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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