Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred in the last 24 hours. Region 431 (S10W84) is quietly rotating around the west solar limb. Region 436 (N07E29) has changed little since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 431 and 436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active for the next 24 hours. Mostly active conditions are expected by 22 August in response to a recurrent high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
Class M25%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Aug 112
  Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug  110/105/100
  90 Day Mean        20 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  018/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  015/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%50%50%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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