Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Frequent small x-ray events occurred, but none exceeded the C2 level reached at 0218 UTC. Two new regions were born on the disk. Regions 461 (N12W38) and 462 (S09W30) are both nascent C-class sunspot groups with small plage fields.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm conditions. A slow CME passed ACE late yesterday, bringing lengthy periods of southward IMF. The solar wind radial speed did not exceed 475 km/s. This elongated transient is still being seen at L1, causing minor to major storming as a result. The solar source of this CME is not well known.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days. A high speed solar wind stream is due September 18, and likely to further prolong the storming now occurring.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 099
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  020/035-025/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%55%50%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%55%50%
Minor storm25%35%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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