Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region
564(N15E00) continues to increase in size, reaching 470 millionths
today. The magnetic complexity of Region 564 remains relatively
unchanged. A slight increase in X-ray background levels was
observed starting around 1300Z. New Region 566(N05E21) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 106 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 010/012-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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