Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. There have been several
minor C-class events with the most significant being a C8.0 from
Region 564 (N14W14) on the 25th at 1225 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 564, which will remain on the visible disk through 28
February, continues to have the potential for C-class activity, with
a very slight chance of an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 119 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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