Viewing archive of Friday, 11 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. A C1.0 flare occurred
from Region 734 (S04E44) at 11/1000Z. LASCO imagery showed a CME
off the SE limb at 11/0254Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE showed a decline from approximately 680 km/s to 620 km/s during
the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 - 14 February. Today's CME
is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 114 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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