Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 March 2005

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N13W11) produced a C7.3 flare at 1142 UTC. No significant development was observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E31) may produce isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions are possible late on 13 March due to the arrival of a recurrent high speed solar wind stream as a small coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar

Class M	15%	15%	15%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       10 Mar 102
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  013/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  008/010-005/010-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	20%
Minor storm	10%	10%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	25%
Minor storm	15%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (672.1 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.52nT), the direction is moderately South (-14.76nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-71nT)

Latest news

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

Saturday, 22 March 2025

Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March

Wednesday, 5 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

Large Coronal Hole 25 116 Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 43 Photographing auroras 34 AR4043 8 More on an art than a science 3

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro