Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 06 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 747 (S05W59) produced a C1.0 flare at 06/0605 UTC and a C1.6 flare at 06/0636 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE decreased from 600 km/s to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Apr 088
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  030/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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