Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 05 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.1/SF flare occurred from Region 747 (S05W47) at 05/2007 UTC. New Region 750 (S08E84) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. Major storm periods at middle latitudes with severe storm periods at higher latitudes were observed between 05/0000 UTC and 05/0600 UTC. At approximately 0200 UTC on 05 April, solar wind speed at ACE increased from 560 km/s to 650 km/s while temperature, density, and the IMF decreased. In addition, Bz remained southward for several hours following this sudden change. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible on 06 April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the coronal hole high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 088
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  022/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  012/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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