Viewing archive of Monday, 11 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 11 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a C1 x-ray event at 0253 UTC from Region 751 (S06W90). The remainder of today's activity consisted of occasional B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period until around 1500 UTC, after which conditions became unsettled to active. Solar wind data show a sector boundary crossing at about 1440 UTC, followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity and enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. This is consistent with solar observations which indicate the presence of a favorably positioned coronal hole just a few degrees behind a solar magnetic polarity inversion line. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 088
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  020/025-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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