Viewing archive of Friday, 13 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 13 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 759 (N12E06) produced an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC. The flare was associated with significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900 sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This event was also associated with an apparent Earth-directed CME. Region 758 (S09W81) only managed to generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and 759.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME associated with the M8 flare in Region 759. There is a chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%10%05%
Proton30%20%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 126
  Predicted   14 May-16 May  120/110/100
  90 Day Mean        13 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  013/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  025/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  012/015-050/075-030/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%50%50%
Major-severe storm05%30%30%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm10%60%60%
Major-severe storm05%30%30%

All times in UTC

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