Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 09 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 775 (N08E08) produced the largest event of the period which was a long duration C1.5 x-ray flare that occurred at 09/1334Z. This region underwent continued growth in sunspot area during the period with the eastern most delta structure from yesterday becoming detached from the dominant central spot. Although the delta structure to the south remains well intact. Region 776 (S06E20) produced a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 09/1631Z and white light analysis showed minor growth in sunspot area. Region 772 (S18W71) appears to have continued to decay and was quiescent throughout the day. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar a activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 775 and 776 may both be capable of producing an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Beginning late on 11 June, active conditions may occur due to the arrival of the faint partial halo CME that was observed yesterday.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jun 116
  Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        09 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jun  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  002/007-002/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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