Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 08 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 776 (S06E33) produced multiple B and C-class flares today. The largest was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at 08/0625Z. There was some visible growth seen in sunspot area. Region 775 (N10E21) underwent growth in two of the satellite sunspots which now appear to be attached to the dominant central sunspot. Magnetic analysis indicates this region to have beta-gamma-delta characteristics. Region 772 (S18W58) was limited to minor B-class flare production while showing a slight growth in sunspot area. A partial halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 08/0512Z which is slow moving and appears to have an Earth directed component. The source for the activity appears to be related to a disappearing solar filament just to the northwest of Region 772. The remaining active regions were quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 775 and 776 both have the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. There is a slight chance that the effects of the partial halo CME that occurred today could begin to be felt late on day three (11 July).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 116
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  006/008-006/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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