Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There were two C-class events. The first was a C3/Sf from Region 772 (S18W44) at 1342 UTC, and the second was a C2.5 from Region 776 (S06E47) at 1914 UTC. Neither of these regions has shown dramatic changes during the past 24 hours. However, Region 776 continues to be the largest group on the disk. There was some new flux emergence and growth in Region 775 (N10E35), but the group didn't produce any flares. A quiescent filament erupted from the northeast part of the disk at about 0900 UTC and was associated with a CME observed by LASCO. The CME is centered over the northeast limb and is about 75 degrees wide: it does not appear to have any earthward directed component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event. Regions 772 and 776 are the most likely sources for activity although Region 775 might also contribute if the current growth trend continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz went through an interval between 06/1800-07/0400 UTC with weakly but persistently negative values ranging from 0 nT to -7 nT. This resulted in unsettled to active levels between 06/2100-07/0300 UTC followed by a minor storm interval from 0300-0600 UTC and another active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been at quiet to unsettled levels since 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first day (08 June). Conditions should be unsettled for the second day (09 June) and are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled for the third day (10 June).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jun 109
  Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        07 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jun  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  010/015-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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