Viewing archive of Monday, 4 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 04 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
two, low-level C-class events. The first was a C1/Sf at 03/2111 UT
from Region 787 (S11W58) and the second was a C1 at 04/2037 UT from
Region 782 (S18W56). Both of these regions are small and appear to
be decaying. Region 783 (S03W07) continues to be the largest on the
disk but was in decay today. The group appears to have simplified to
a beta magnetic configuration and did not produce any flares. New
Region 789 (N18E74) rotated into view today, accompanied by surging
on the limb and frequent low-level brightenings. Region 786 (N12E36)
showed growth today and appears to have a magnetic delta
configuration in the leading group of spots. Despite the complexity
in 786 the group did not produce any flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there continues to be a chance for an isolated M-class event,
with Regions 786 or Region 783 the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be
mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 July).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 124 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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