Viewing archive of Friday, 1 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 01 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C5 at 0502 UTC from newly numbered
Region 786 (N13E76). The event was associated with a type II radio
sweep and a small, narrow CME off the east limb. There was one
additional C-flare today; a C1 at 1256 UTC from Region 782 (S17W18).
Region 782 and 783 (S03E33) both showed noteworthy growth during the
past 24 hours. New Region 787 (S09W22) emerged on the disk during
the day as a small B-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the next three days (02-04 July), but there is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active, but there was a
minor storm period from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind data indicate the
onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole, beginning at about
1200 UTC. Solar wind speed at the end of the analysis period had
reached about 500 km/s and was steadily increasing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the first day (02 July), with a
chance for isolated minor storm periods. Conditions should decline
to unsettled to active for the second day (03 July), and should be
predominantly unsettled for the third day (04 July).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 115 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 017/020-010/018-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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