Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 30 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Regions 782 (S17W04)
and 783 (S02E45) exhibited moderate growth, and both maintained a
beta magnetic configuration. New Region 785 (S18E21) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 782 and 783 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
at ACE has remained below 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with an isolated chance of minor
storm activity, on 1-2 July as a coronal hole solar wind stream
reaches geoeffective position. Activity should subside to
quiet-unsettled conditions on 3 July.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 103 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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