Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Regions 782 (S17W04) and 783 (S02E45) exhibited moderate growth, and both maintained a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 785 (S18E21) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 782 and 783 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE has remained below 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with an isolated chance of minor storm activity, on 1-2 July as a coronal hole solar wind stream reaches geoeffective position. Activity should subside to quiet-unsettled conditions on 3 July.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 103
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  010/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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