Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 27 2205 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M3.7 flare was observed at 27/0502 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep, and a 800 sfu Tenflare. This event was correlated with a full halo CME observed by LASCO imagery from around the east limb. This activity indicates the likely return of old Region 786 (N10,L=56) which is due to return on the visible solar disk 28 July. The only visible numbered spot group on the disk at this time is Region 791 (N13W06). It remains a beta magnetic classification and has decreased slightly in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The returning region on the east limb may produce C- and M-class events with a chance for an isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. In the past 24 hours the solar wind speed has increased from around 300 km/s to above 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating southward to -12 nT. This may be the onset of a high speed stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods as the coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton50%50%50%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jul 091
  Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        27 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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