Viewing archive of Friday, 29 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 29 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 792 (N11E66)
produced today's only M-class event, an M4/Sf at 2208 UTC. The event
was associated with a type II radio sweep and a fast CME that was
centered on the east limb. Region 792 also produced a C3 x-ray event
at 1732 UTC which was associated with erupting prominence material
from the east limb. Observations of Region 792 indicate a 430
millionths, compact, beta-gamma sunspot group. New Region 793
(N14E11) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (30 July - 01 August). There is also
a slight chance for a major flare from Region 792.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream
from a coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues
in progress. The event, which began at 27/2300 UTC attained a new
maximum of 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC. There appears to be an influx of
new energetic particles in response to the M4/CME event of 28/2208
UTC which is prolonging this proton event.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours (30 July). Conditions should decline to generally unsettled
for 31 July and should be quiet to unsettled for 01 August. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to continue through the
first day (30 July), but should decline thereafter unless additional
strong, eruptive events occur from Region 792.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 90% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 104 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 010/015-007/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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