Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 30 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 792 (N12E52) produced an X1/2b event today with maximum at 0635 UTC. The event had a long decay time and was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. The event was also associated with a fast, full halo CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed in the range of 1700-1800 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view, and was somewhat asymmetric towards the east. Region 792 consists of a compact cluster of spots and appears to have at least two delta configurations within its complex magnetic configuration. In addition to the X-flare, Region 792 also produced a C9/1n at 0519 UTC and a C8/Sf at 1707 UTC. Another CME has been observed following the C8 event, but so far appears to be a limb event rather than a partial or full halo event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate for the next three days (31 July - 02 August), but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated major flare activity from Region 792. In addition, there is an increasing likelihood that major flare activity from Region 792 will lead to enhanced proton flux as the group rotates closer to disk center.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data show a gradual decline in velocity, indicating the transition from a high speed stream to normal solar wind conditions; day end velocities were at 470-480 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300 UTC continues in progress. The maximum flux observed so far is 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC. There was no detectable upturn in proton flux from today's major flare/CME event, although it may be contributing to the prolonging of the currently enhanced flux levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for 31 July. A glancing blow from today's full halo CME is expected early on 01 August and is expected to increase activity to predominantly active levels, with a chance for some minor storm periods. Conditions should decline to unsettled to slightly active by 02 August.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton80%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jul 105
  Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  014/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  010/015-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%35%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm05%20%10%

All times in UTC

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