Viewing archive of Friday, 14 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 14 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. A new region,
numbered 815 (N08E75), appeared on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with unsettled to active conditions possible
on 15-16 October as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 078 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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