Viewing archive of Friday, 14 October 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 14 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A new region, numbered 815 (N08E75), appeared on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with unsettled to active conditions possible on 15-16 October as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 078
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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