Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 826 (S04W21) produced
the only C-flare of the period; a C2.1 at 04/0945 UTC. New Region
831 (S06W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 826.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE
decreased from approximately 680 km/s to 560 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on
05 December due to transient flow from the 02 December CME. On 06
December quiet to unsettled conditions are expected. On 07
December, quiet to active conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 095 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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