Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 31 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions. On 01 and 02 January, unsettled to active conditions are possible due to CME activity from 29 December. On 03 January, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 087
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  010/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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