Viewing archive of Friday, 24 February 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 24 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk continues to remain spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 24/1200 to 24/1500 UTC at several observatories. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible on 25 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 and 27 February.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 076
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  075/080/080
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  005/012-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%20%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.94nT).

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